Hi! Been going over details that I've worked out & most are the same IE: rate of decent 1600ft/min. Time-Distance-speed from first radar i dent to Craven: 11min, 33nm approx@ 170kts ground speed. based on timing on recording, distance from report of location of radar I dent to Craven radar disappearance & GS on 240/30kts with plan speed of 150kts from flight plan.
One thing that I thought strange was the pilot in the recording says that the NDB needle & compass were swinging all over the place, indicating that he couldn't hold a heading/track & didn't know where he was going/end up. The line from first radar I dent to Craven on the chart is 102T minus- 12E equals= 090M, then from a flight computer working out the wind direction & speed = +7 degrees which = heading of exactly 097M? If the pilot flew 090M & didn't allow for the wind he would fly -7 degrees =083M + 12E= 095T on the chart? & that's if the radar info is correct? By the way; 170kts GS= 314km/hr! Hitting trees at that speed wouldn't leave much! If a fire as well? nothing!
Rob Campbell
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
Robert Campbell
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Nev (Rob)
Hi guys, firstly my wife and I have become addicted to this site (and others) regarding VH-MDX. We have absolutely no flying education apart from a flight to Brisy once. After reading for hours and listening to the radio transcript over and over I am wondering a few things. And no I won’t go into any gold, money or drug theories.
At the commencement of the transmission it is clear that Sydney were already aware of an issue hence the redirection to Maitland and request to keep the lights on. At this stage I am thinking of a small wire fire or similar which in coming minutes would take out his instrumentation as he states. The pilot states they may have control of it yet my thoughts (for what they are worth) are along the lines that it was still active albeit small.
I note that all of the searches seem to take place in the Tops. Again it appears that a lot of pilot knowledge has led them to this area and again I believe the radar hit and radio transmission are the commencement of these theories. I am wondering as an outsider, if the plane was still flying for some time after the radio transmission. I suppose I am getting at the fact that the radio falls peril to the same fate as his instrumentation. Again my knowledge of radar at that time is zip so I am unsure if it is a hit at a particular locstat or if it is a recorded continuous blip that disappears. Could it be the case that he is trying to get back onto his path after the radio fails?
I note that if this was the case then your sites at Craven add support to this. My wife is a Gloucester local as is her father. I know many witnesses have provided sightings etc however our father has been informed first hand of a particular sighting on this night in which what appeared to be a plane on fire passed by one mountain disappearing for a short time then reappearing. I am sorry to say this witness has passed away however he did live on Glen Road Craven! I am attempting to find out his exact house on Glen Road prior to his passing.
Lastly guys the transmission does show a man in great stress with a large number of factors hitting them at once. I do believe it appears though that he does go from panic back to being able to communicate after the lighting call and altitude at 5000. It appears that he may be climbing after that, Could it be the case that he does again get control after the last transmission, looses all instrumentation *including radio, and whilst flying blind in an attempt to get back on course simply flies into the earth. If taking into account this witness is accurate add to this the initial small fire now having grown into a full blown disaster.
Guys my wife’s father who spoke to the witness is a pilot with many hours of flying and also has a keen interest in this. He is not privy to the internet however on his next trip down I will surf with him and quiz him. Should you need an extra hand or two he is keen to help as an extra body searching (as will I after having become addicted to this mystery).
Thanks for the time to read.
Wayne
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