Rob Campbell

Since other sightings are unconfirmed & hazy, the only other reasonable info to go on is the Radar info, otherwise every one is looking for a needle in a hay stack. From original reports(read all earlier blogs) the Location of 1st Radar Ident E151 18' S32 03'. MDX got to this loc because it was 6 degree's off course from Taree, went west through ice cloud & lost it's position to turn left. After Ident MDX turned around & headed roughly 95 to 100 degree's magnetic to get to the coast so to be at a lower altitude to get the ice off & to regain orientation, but MDX went back through the ice cloud & collected more ice than the aircraft could handle & came down. From the Flight Plan & having a 30 to 40kt tail wind the ground speed matches the time it would take to go that distance from 1st radar to when MDX disappeared over Craven/Stratford. From the Pilot calling out his Altitude & the timing in the recording, I worked out MDX descending at 1600ft/min, from Craven/Stratford crash area is about 9km/5nm to the east. There are a few variables, was MDX actually at 5000ft over Craven/Stanford or bit higher or lower? The Radar said over Craven, but could have been over Stanford if going direct to Foster(lights) or in between? Was MDX in a high speed descent or a stalling lower speed descent?
Rob Campbell

Martins email

Hi Nev,
I had never heard of VH-MDX until 2 weeks ago. The 4wd club I am involved with are being asked to contribute ground support during the planned search this October. I am sad that there are 5 families without closure and 5 men that are still missing. I am also fascinated and reading
everything I can. I flew gliders in the Hunter Valley and at Lake Keepit for years and canoed the Manning and tributaries many times. I am an expert at nothing but good at a few things and if nothing else, I will continue to follow your progress (in actual fact, I will be part of that October ground support role if it kills me).

Question 1). Do you have the coordinates of the 1st radar sighting ?. (I can't derive enough accuracy from the radar chart to plot it on Google Earth)

Question 2). Was the 2nd radar sighting actually made ?. I note that it was never confirmed in the radio transcript but is noted on the radar chart.

Do we have the coordinates of that 2nd radar sighting if it is confirmed ?.

Question 3). What is the reasoning behind your search areas as depicted in the Google Earth pictures ?.

I am not out to reinvent wheels as I am an 'expert at nothing'. I just want to know for my understanding and further research before I go up there.

Best of luck to you.

Hi Martin,
Thanks for your email. There's not much i can tell you that's not already on the blog site. If you check under the post last radar position you will find the diagram to click on and enlarge to give you the last radar position as well as flight plan booked by MDX. The reason i searched around the pol blue area was due to a sighting that was made by a pilot who said he saw wreckage on a hill side at the top of the headwaters at pol blue creek. Unfortunately this was not the case.

I have now moved my search to the area of Buladehlah after reviewing some of the posts that have been sent to me and not having any new information to go on since I've exhausted my previous search area. It's a needle in a haystack as you know but half the fun is just getting out in the bush and being a part of a search. Good luck with your search as well and good on ya for getting out there and having a go.

Let me know how the search go's in October.

regards

Nev

Hi Nev,

On your VH-MDX blog, Robert Campbell reports (posted 03JUL2009) that the radio transmission is out of order (the actual audio file doesn't follow the order of the typed transcript).

I have edited the audio file and attached it. In doing so it can be seen that the first 4 minutes (page 2) is present as is the last 4 minutes (Page 4 & Page 5). The attached audio file isnow in this order.
For whatever reason the period 0928 'MDX SY Could you squark code 4000....' to 0934 '-DX Say again Maitland' are missing I.e. the bottom half of page 2, all of page 3 and the top bit of page 4. Of small consequence as the most qualified have computed the search area/s but an observation nonetheless.

Note:

I'm having trouble uploading Martins edited transmission file to the blog. If anyone would like a copy just send me an email and I'll pass it on.

Nev

Rob Campbell's search positions

Hi! Nev, These are 2 possible positions & whats in between & about 1/2 km either side is what I've worked out as a best guess to search for MDX!

Rob Campbell

Hi! Here is a larger image showing distance as approx.9 km or 5 nm from Stanford/Craven!

Rob Campbell

1st comment posted

If anyone is interested there is a comment posted to Rob Campbell's post in September's blog. Thanks for that Snowy. I thought it would take precedence for this months blog as it is a new post but it looks like a comment must stay with the post it is attached to whenever the original post was created. You learn something every day. Nev

Announcement

To all readers of this blog. I've decided to open this blog for public comment. To access the blog use the comment button at the bottom of the post. You will need to wait one day before posting as well as verify and open a gmail account before commenting, googles rules not mine!. I must admit to being a control freak and checking all emails but not altering them in any way before posting. I'm willing to trial this open blog to comment to promote a discussion forum with quicker response times. If any of our readers have search tips, techniques or links to similar sites send them in.

regards

Nev

Reply from Nev

Thanks for the email lee, It's funny you mention the West of Forster. The emails coming in to this blog all seem to be pointing away from the Barrington Tops area to the north, possibly north east. Do any of our regular readers have any thoughts on this ?

Nev

Lee Wright

Hi Nev,

No problem. It sounds to me like there was a lot of eye witness accounts & they can't all be correct so this may be just nothing. We lived near Coomba Park on the Western side of Wallis Lake (about 8km West of Forster) back then . My mother (a pilot in her younger years), was travelling along Coomba Road when she noticed a plane flying low over the lake around that time. When she heard about the crash she felt it could have been the plane. I don't know if she reported it or not. There could be other explanations for this:

1. If it was after the crash it could have been a search plane possibly launched from the Wallis Island airport.
2. It could have been another plane from the Wallis Island airport although this would be extremely unusual at that time of night.

I wondered if it was possible for the plane to have traveled that far East but I do note that a search was conducted as far East as Buladelah.

I know Wallis Lake extremely well - I was about 13 then & a boating fanatic. I've explored just about every corner of Wallis lake. The main part of the lake is too shallow for a plane not to be noticed. The deeper estuaries (max 4 Metres) are extensively netted by fishermen & I think they would have dragged up something by now.

I do think a plane could go down in Myall Lake just to the South & not be noticed. I don't know it well but I believe it's considerably deeper. Much of the area such as the Wallingat State forest is quite unpopulated and a plane could pass over without being noticed by many. I think it would be harder for a plane to pass at low altitude over the coast without being seen. Even back then the coast was fairly populated.

Are you aware of any other reports from the Forster/Wallingat area?

Anyway, just thought I'd share what I know of the incident.

Regards,




Lee.

Pol Blue search

Hi Rob,

I've been concentrating my search in the Pol Blue area on a sighting from a pilot seven months after the crash. He reckons he saw wreckage and broken trees on the side of a hill. After combing this area extensively in the last few years as well as chartering a flight and retracing his flight plan over the area I've yet to see anything.

Hi! Nev. Why didn’t that pilot mark the exact spot on his chart & report by radio while he was there over flying? Anyway, the simulations I’ve done show it always about to crash on west facing ridge 32*09’04.46”S 150*02’50.55”E & 32*09’14.00”S 152*02’48.00”E [see on Google earth] this is based on radar info & the recording of pilot calling out his altitude & the timing in the recording & his calculated ground speed from his flight plan, I’ve worked out MDX descending about 1600FT/MIN @5000FT over Craven assuming MDX was still heading between 90 & 100 degrees[towards Foster].The maps you need is Craven 9233-1S & Warranulla 9333-4S both 1:25000, the way to get to that spot is Via Glen Rd turn left to Trig 571 Craven turn right down hill part way up other side of ridge[log across track, chain saw needed, also need a 4WD as hasn’t been driven on for awhile, except motor bikes] the lantana here gets quite thick as you go from top down the hill, so good cutting equipment needed also. MY son & myself walked across the ridge, nth to sth about 75 meter’s down from the top, we didn’t have any cutting tools & day light was running out [one afternoon search] so we couldn’t get to those exact spots. Also on the sim just before you crash, pause it & tune in NDB’s & VOR’s from Taree, Williamtown, West Maitland, get their bearings & convert them on the Newcastle/Williamtown Terminal chart.

Rob Campbell

Hi! Nev

If you guys don’t believe the Radar info then you’re wasting your time because most of the other info is vague. If you’ve got flight sim X & use a similar type of aircraft [over weight it slightly for the ice on board] & use same wind/ speed 270@40 Kts @ 5000FT between Craven & Stanford [last position on radar] heading about 90 to 100 degrees [because I believe he could see & was heading to the lights at Foster] & without power descend @ 1600FT/min on autopilot & see where you end up!

Rob Campbell

John Watson

Hi Nev

My name's John Watson. In 2003 I did a report on MDX for John Tonitto, using the final radar fix and the pilot's likely actions / track in the following few minutes until impact, to produce a dead reckoning area of probability of the MDX crash site. This was of course in the steepest terrain and heaviest vegetation available.

I excluded all except verified technical evidence, ie., excluding reports of aircraft sightings and engine sounds, and used my commercial flying background (which includes about 1000 hours on C210's) for some understanding of this kind of situation.

I have just read, with interest, Dave Whiteman's 18 Sep 2008 blog post. Dave would have a lot to offer. He is correct in stating that Ms O'Hare did not see MDX as it was at 9000' at the time. As well, my own calculations indicated a required ground speed of >250 knots to get to her location between positive radar fixes, ie., her report cannot be used. She would have seen one of at least two aircraft in the area that night; in that era, light aircraft commuting was far more common.

Michael Summers

The reply to my post reference the Radar Plot at Craven.

At the time the aircraft disappeared it was not radar identified. The aircraft was observed 36 - 40nm North of Singleton on the Mount Sandon - Singleton track at time 0928. Given the comments from the controllers it is evident that there was no accurate position on the aircraft or an accurate heading able to be determined. The Radar diagram on the website I believe is completely mis-leading. It has the aircraft identified at the position above but then it has it heading east to the final position, number 2 on the plot. From what I can determine from the transcript, after it was first identified and lost on the screen, it was not identified again. This is evident by the fact that at 0936 the controllers are asking him to squark ident. He says" were squarking 3000 with ident..." and the comments "we're looking for you". in other words they had no data indicating where the aircraft went after they first identified it north of Singleton and it is still not on the screen. Also the fact it wasn't able to be identified by the Williamtown Radar head at the time it disappeared was because it was below the line of sight of the Radar due to the terrain around the Barrington tops area and because the aircraft was so far to the North West. My belief is that after it was first identified at 0928 it continued on roughly the same heading it was on from Craven (approx 315 degrees magnetic), taking it even further away from Radar coverage, ending up flying the route I posted on my previous blog. If it indeed was where the final indication is on the drawing, at 5000 feet, it would have been well and truly inside radar coverage and they would have seen an exact position where it went in. The final plotted position on the radar plot is less than 40nm from Williamtown. A radar would certainly be able to detect an aircraft above 5000 feet at this range. Also the controllers only suggested he "....head east toward the coast, toward Wlliamtown". They had no idea where he was heading, this was just a suggested course of action. In summary I believe the radar drawing is unreliable.

I have also attached the missing page of the transcript, page 2 as it doesn't show up on the website.

cheers,

Michael

Andrew Cusbert

Hi
I have followed this since the accident and have owned property in east Btops (moppy) since 94 and have been trailriding up there since 89.
I have met Jack and Dell O hare,
Have you search the upper devils hole and between the mount carson trail and kholwa trail?
and the manning river gorge country east of the ohares and wombat rd
Regards
Andrew

Hi Andrew,

Thanks for your email, No i havent been through this area. I concentrate my search area in the Pol Blue area after a pilots visual sighting of what he thought was a wing on the side of a hill. He was a little vague on the exact area. He even went back years later and flew over the supposed spot and didnt find anything. But i like to be sure and I'll continue in this area for a while. Due to work commitments I havent been up there for over a year. Why do you think the plane is in this area? and have you done much searching or investigation in this area.

Nev



Hi Nev,
I am talking right beside polblue,
I am a professional firefighter of 25 years service
Like I told you, I have followed this since the accident ,studying every piece of info that i have found, flight paths, topography etc.
Till i found your blog yesterday i have beeen silent
I know the area pretty well, I have a property that goes up to 900 metres,it butts onto the mount carson trail (1500) and is in the Moppy/Kholwa region. My farm is about 13km due east of polblue. Like I said I have ridden around on trail bikes all over the tops since 1989 and I find lost trails, Replica colt pistols and all sorts of stuff that people who have been up there for 18 years look for and cant locate, I am quite thorough and seem to have difficulty getting lost.I look at things with a very unothodox analytical mind and get stuck in a lot of extreme situations where my friends dare not ride

One of the places i have suggested is a large hole 1.5 kays across and about a kay deep and about 10 kays long, there are no tracks and there has been no logging. It is the sort of area that if you were two feet off the track you are invisible AND IT IS ONLY 3 KMS EAST OF POLBLUE, If you follow the logic that most storms of this type blow from the south or west,like I experience at my farm then WHY WHY WHY are you looking around Brumlow top??? its not even anywhere near where a plane would be thrown

Just because a mosquito went that way in 1945? wrong bet! matey! much bigger wings and faster!
I read the cops searched around 25kay sw of Gloucester and The Mt Nelson trail nr Dungog, now even a shithead greeny would know that most of the mountain range 'meat' occurs way before this

If in the direction i think, it puts it about 5/6 kays south of the O'Hares.

BY the way ,have you ever met Dell O'Hare she is REAL, Nev mate, a strong woman, not prone to flights of fancy, Alpine cattlemen and woman are not prone to making stuff up her story shouldve been followed up by those clod 80's wallopers, have you ever seen where she lived its a misty place near cock rock , but living in those situations you rely on other senses like hearing
(back to police) Anyway I met one of the control radio stn coppers from the search George? something his name was.


I ride around both sides of polblue to go to the moonan flat pub from my farm 55 kays straight over my back fence and up and over a 5200 ft mtn range

Polblue is as flat as a pancake compared to the area im talkin about Willis, THE DEVILS HOLE, sure ive searched but only on the track, its a world of hurt in there!
and Im not gunna leave my 10k trail bike behind for the ranger to find!

I have had this feeling in my gut for at least 10 years

I believe the plane is there as it makes perfect logical sense to me

I think you need jetpacks!

Regards
Andrew

Robert Campbell

Hi! Nev, The info you have obtained is very interesting, if it's 100% accurate! I'm a pilot myself & have done chart work & distance/speed calculations using this info. Most of the reports are a bit confusing,(where mdx is at) but I've worked on the radar info & calculated a approximate position. Has any search that you know of been done east of Caven on the Buckets Way, on north Cabbage Tree Mtn? Also the voice recording between MDX & ACT isn't in order!

Hi Robert,Thanks for your email. I will have to get back to you about cabbage tree mountain. I will have to check on my charts for its location. I'm guessing the closest observation of the plane east of craven would be Wooton. Cant be sure without checking. In regards to the voice recording, Do you mean the transcript pages are not in order? Or the voice and transcript dont match?

Hi! MDX was at 5000ft over Craven heading East, but minutes before this it was descending @ 1500ft/min & I believe it still was after radar contact was lost! If you listen to the timing in the back ground of the recording, it shows the sequence of events are not in order!
Robert

Mark Nolan

Hi there.My name is Mark, and I have been following MDX for some time now. A bitabout me. I am in the Army, an experienced Pilot, bushwalker, hunter andgeneral outdoorsy kinda guy! I was googling MDX and came upon your blog.I spoke to Ray price some time ago, and he had a copy of a report into MDX,which included a signifigant amount of information relating to both thefinal hours and the subsequent search. It contained final radar data,transcripts and search sites. Reading your blog about the rather clever ideaabout state forest logging, I was wondering if you would be able to supplyme with any information you might have?I want to put together a proposal for an exercise at work for an activity,and try to incorporate a search for it. Any information you want to sharewould be greatly appreciated. I would also be interested in any futurewalks/search's that you conduct.Anyway, please feel free to email me back if you can or can't help.This has intrigued me for some time, and would like to assist in bringing itto a conclusion.Hope to hear from you soon.Mark

If anyone would like to assist Mark I'll pass his number on with his permission.

Nev

Reply to Michael Summers post

Hi! That latest blog sounds interesting, but he hasn't seen the Radar info showing disappearing over Craven & the ATC indicate that MDX is heading East towards the Coast or Williamtown. I'm heading up there next week to have a quick look.Rob Campbell

Questions and comments

To all fellow MDX followers, When i started this blog it was for the purpose of providing a reference point for other searchers or for anyone interested in a piece of aviation history. Apart from John Tonitto and his crew from Bushwalkers Wilderness Rescue I did'nt think there was anybody else out there. The emails I've been receiving have convinced me to place them up on the blog for others to read and debate if they wish. Any email will still come to me to be placed up on the blog to prevent any spam, flaming and defaming of any of our contributors. I will not change or alter any email except to hide emails, phone numbers and trash talk as i wish to promote discussion for ideas on the location of MDX. Down the track with time permitting i would like to put together a map showing the areas that have been searched by all parties past and present. I reckon everyone will be surprised with the amount and variety of areas covered which can only promote further discussion and ideas.

Your thoughts would be appreciated

You can contact me and leave your posts or suggestions at missingplane@gmail.com

The adventure continues.

Nev

P.S.
Unless specifically stated "not for publication" all relevant email will be placed up on the blog

Another piece to the puzzle

The following email is from another MDX'er Michael Summers. Hopefully another piece to the puzzle.

Thanks Michael.

I was doing a Google search tonight on the Internet on MDX and stumbled> across your site. I have been interested in the case for some years now and> have collected some of the information shown on your website, obtained from> various agencies, mainly the NSW Police. My family is from Nundle about 60km> South East of Tamworth. They have lived in the area for the majority of> their lives and have operated the Nundle Sawmill for over 40 years having a> good detailed understanding of the Area. I was only 10 years old at the time> the aircraft crashed and I have heard a number of scenarios relating to the> disappearance of this aircraft. On the night of the crash my parents and> other residents both within the town and on properties around the town> distinctly remember the aircraft passing over the town. My father has had a> keen interest in aircraft all his life and is very perceptive to aircraft> that pass through the area, and was particularly so on the night of the> crash. My parents home is approx 1 km to the east of the town and they> recall quite vividly the aircraft passing over the house that night just> after 60 Minutes had started on television. They remember the time as being> approx 7.30 pm and the aircraft unusually noisy with a high power set. At> least 10 other people around the town also heard the aircraft at a similar> time. We have put many hours into establishing a timeline to determine the> aircrafts position, in particular the 9-10 minutes from when it passed the> town to when it is disappeared. I have been a pilot in the RAAF for the past> 19 years and have used my knowledge of aviation and meteorology to calculate> a probable position of the aircraft. With a westerly wind of around 60-70> kts and an approximate groundspeed of 150kts (given the aircraft was> experiencing icing and possibly flying at a low indicated airspeed whilst> attempting to climb) we have estimated the aircraft travelled approx 23nm> (40-45km) from the town, disappearing at 1939. We have considered a lot of> other accounts that put the aircraft in the vicinity of the Barrington Tops> National Park but we think the aircraft could not have travelled that far> given the accounts we have from people at Hanging Rock and further to the> east. We believe it is around the Tuggolo State Forest and Nowendoc National Park Area. My father has> been on several searches with the local Nundle Policeman in recent years in> this area and still large areas remain untouched.

Transcript of VHMDX radio transmission

Three killed as rookie pilot flies into bad weather

Article from the Herald newspaper 15/09/08

A pilot had taken off from Scone with his newly bought plane and into atrocious conditions in a bold bid to get home to Queensland. The plane a single engine Cessna 206 was discovered atop a ridge near Hanging Rock 55 kilometres North East of Scone.


NRMA Careflight spokesman Ian Badham said the plane had come down through the trees. The planes wings had been torn off on impact he said.

The plane before the crash.

Wreckage photo taken by Careflight helicopter.

Another tragic plane crash near the Barrington Tops. The reason I've posted these Before and after photos of the crash is to give searchers an idea of what condition MDX might be found in. Would it be intact or like the photo demonstrates, would it be scattered over an area with the wings torn off. With years of exposure to the elements and foliage making it impossible to distinguish from it's surroundings

I'm not the only one

When writing this blog i received emails from various people who in one way or another were involved with the search for MDX. In this post i thought i would share with everyone some of the emails from other searchers including their search areas, ideas and thoughts on the subject of where MDX could have crashed. After reading these notes it can only open up more discussion and maybe add another piece to the jigsaw.



The adventure continues...Nev




email from: Dave Whiteman
subject: MDX

Neville,

In August 1981 I was a police officer attached to the Communications Section of the NSW Police Force in Sydney. I was also a licensed pilot at the time and was an Officer in the RAAF Reserves at RAAF Richmond. I was also in the Hunter Valley on the day VH-MDX went missing. I heard about it on the car radio as i returned to Sydney and the next day i was directed by Superintendant Aldred, The OIC of the Disaster and Rescue branch to provide aviation background to him and his team who were by then involved in the search. I also knew Ken Price who was onboard MDX. I was given a tape of the radio conversation between ATC and MDX to study and i was asked to plot the track from information on the tape. I still have a copy of the tape. The disaster and rescue branch set up an OP's room where the search was co-ordinated from. I plotted the probable track of the aircraft from the radio conversation and as a pilot and RAAF operations officer with extensive navigation and flight planning skills, I was in a good position to provide an accurate plot of the aircrafts track.

I was able to estimate the possible location where the aircraft crashed and this information was conveyed to the Police Air Wing who sent an officer to see what my assessment was. He all but dismissed my assessment of where the aircraft was and i could see that the Air Wing and other rescue personnel had convinced themselves that the aircraft was in a totally different area. They had based this information on an eyewitness report, I think this was the one you have, by Mrs Dell O'hare. Contrary to the police not investigating this report, this is what they based their search upon. I submitted that at the time she claimed she saw the aircraft it was in fact at 9,000 feet in heavy cloud and she could not have possibly seen it by looking out her window.

Anyway, to cut a long story short. They never looked in the area i reckoned was the probable crash site and i even spoke to Peter Anforth a couple of years before he died and he dismissed my assessment saying the aircraft was in Chichester Dam.

I still have an interest in MDX, as does my son who is also a pilot, and indeed there is a police officer stationed at Bulahdelah who has been searching for it for years. I hope one day they find it and clear up the mystery.

Cheers

Dave Whiteman

P.S. I also worked at Manly Police Station in the 1970's and often patrolled down at the wharf. I fondly remember the old South Steyne.