It's not it !

Hi! Nev, Just came back from checking out the object from google earth at those co-ord's. It's a 8 hr return hike through vines, up & down 2 MOUNTAINS, from the north near the river, but it's not it! It's a LARGE Granite outcrop, open to the sky & spread out! I have pictures & video of the object! I still think MDX is east of Craven because the radar takes us there, the recording takes us there & time/distance matches.
Rob Campbell
Ps: Happy Hunting?

Google earth

Hi Nev,
I can't see reference to such on your blog re this so I'll just type away...

Google Earth would be a great tool to use in searching for VH-MDX. A long shot given the years of overgrowth that may have occurred but a shot anyway and with hundreds (thousands ?) of armchair spotters eyeballing the area, who knows !.. A major obstacle is the resolution that photos of that area are taken at. Something the size of a Cessna 210 would be hard to spot even if it was sitting in a clearing with the current resolution available. Has anyone approached Google Earth and asked them to set their cameras to max resolution during their next overfly ?. For that matter even the RAAF may be able to take some high res photos of high-probability areas for the same army of armchair spotters to crawl over.


Martin Dalmazzo

Investigating

Hi! Nev. A friend & I looked up another aircraft that dissappeared in 1945 flying from Darwin to Brisbaine & was found accidently 80km west of Gladstone in a fire burnoff in 1994. It was a B24 Liberator 'Beautiful Betsy', they are a large aircraft compared to a 210, see how much of it was left intact after the crash in the pictures from that web site! Also from the other blog site one guy had coordinates of what looks like a plane but the measurements are to big for a 210, 31 41'52.04S 151 45'15.80E.
Rob Campbell

Robert Campbell

Hi! Been going over details that I've worked out & most are the same IE: rate of decent 1600ft/min. Time-Distance-speed from first radar i dent to Craven: 11min, 33nm approx@ 170kts ground speed. based on timing on recording, distance from report of location of radar I dent to Craven radar disappearance & GS on 240/30kts with plan speed of 150kts from flight plan.
One thing that I thought strange was the pilot in the recording says that the NDB needle & compass were swinging all over the place, indicating that he couldn't hold a heading/track & didn't know where he was going/end up. The line from first radar I dent to Craven on the chart is 102T minus- 12E equals= 090M, then from a flight computer working out the wind direction & speed = +7 degrees which = heading of exactly 097M? If the pilot flew 090M & didn't allow for the wind he would fly -7 degrees =083M + 12E= 095T on the chart? & that's if the radar info is correct? By the way; 170kts GS= 314km/hr! Hitting trees at that speed wouldn't leave much! If a fire as well? nothing!
Rob Campbell

Anniversary

Checking my mail last night i received an email from Yvonne Pembroke. She reminded me that today is the 29th anniversary of MDX. I'd totally forgotten about the day,has it been that long?
For me it's been eleven years of excitement and frustration. Somedays i tell myself enough is enough. Let someone else do it i'm to busy, too tired but something keeps dragging me back time and time again. Maybe i'm just a slow learner, who knows!Maybe i just dont know when to give up.


When the world says, "Give up,"
Hope whispers, "Try it one more time."
~Author Unknown

Rob Campbell

Hi! Nev, I just spent a week looking in my 3 positions & I thought I'd be the last to say it, but I gave up! It will take something of a Miracle & good luck to find MDX after 28 years in dense bush & THICK Lantana.Thanks to the person who cut the log across the track! I searched around my no.2 position & couldn't see any thing, I then searched my no.1 position, it's a tree farm, got in there via back way from the Craven Trig & its not on the chart, but they bulldozed a road up & along the ridge & actually joins position no.2 & again couldn't see any thing. Had a drive past at no.3 position but didn't look, the Lantana across the creeks is thick & the hills are steep. If you want to look I recommend around the no.3 position(Glen Rd). There are locked gates & private properties in most other area's I wanted to look! As I said earlier, you would have a better chance with an imaging device that the military are trialing that makes the bush disappear to see what's underneath, from an aircraft! Good Luck!! Rob Campbell
Ps. The Pilot didn't do himself any favors by not giving a bearing to something IE. Taree NDB or his direction(east?) as radar shows! or seeing lights etc. In the first place why didn't he back track off Taree NDB until he was 180 degree's off Maitland VOR & turn left!! The VOR doesn't swing as compass or NDB does!

Rob Campbell

Ok! Wind Gusts or currents are also caused by changes in Temperature & Pressure!

Gavin Grimmer

Hi Nev - Hi Rob,

Yes, I have my own plane (one I built - V8 Powered Maranda Super 14 ZK-JGR) and I have been in very turbulent weather. They say that if you want to know what turbulence is, then come to New Zealand! They also say that flying is 99% shear pleasure, laced with 1% sheer terror! - and I've had a fair bit of sheer terror, so I guess that means I've done a fair bit of flying.
It is an accepted fact that when you are at least 2000 ft above ranges the wind will be constant as of "on the nose" of the aircraft, unless you are in a Cb (thunderstorm). The only thing that changes is the vertical air currents i.e. up draughts and down draughts - and more so in a CB.
Wind "gusts" are produced mechanically by obstructions on the ground such as hills, buildings, etc.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not disagreeing with you. I was only trying to give you suggestions of other possibilities that you may not have thought of before.
You'll note I was suggesting that his altimeter was reading the incorrect height and if this was so, he may well have been down in the mechanical turbulence area and in fact this is most likely what was happening, but as always, you have to keep an open mind.
If his compass was swinging due to magnetic/electrical interference that was coming from outside the aircraft, then this could give you a hint of where he was at the time. I have never been to that part of Australia, so I'm just making suggestions that may be of benefit to you as you have the advantage of knowing the country that he was flying over, and by me making suggestions, they may bring something to mind that you hadn't thought of before.
If the ADF was swinging because it was out of range of the station and his compass was swinging due to some outside influence (such as an Iron Mine), then you need to find an area that fits both of these criteria, and then if everything else such as probable ground speed, etc., fits the scenario, then it would be a good place to look!
Most long lost aircraft are found miles away from where they were supposed to be - take Steve Fossett for example!

Regards,
Gavin

Martin Dalmazzo

HI Nev,
Sorry for the late reply... lets just say that life is hectic at the moment...
Here is a link to the re-ordered VH-MDX transmissions on zShare..

zShare is slow to respond (if you are not registered) but accepts most file types.

and again... all I have done to this audio file is re-order it to match the time-stamped transcript..

http://www.zshare.net/download/764226472384885c/

Rob Campbell

Hi! Nev, To Gavin: Have you been in a light plane when there is a strong wind? The wind is not constant, it blows in Gust's, & therefore the plane is bouncing around up & down & twisting from side to side! That's why the compass & ADF was swinging wildly in MDX on the recording! By the way, the second half of the recording should be listened to before the first half, because the timing is out!
Rob Campbell

Gavin Grimmer

Hi Nev,

Looks like you are my "counterpart" in Oz.

I have a website www.findlostaircraft.co.nz and I have several missing aircraft "on the go" that I'm trying to find and hence the reason for the website.

One of my visitors to my site put me on to your blogsite and I must say you have put in a lot of effort and a lot of information on it - well done!

I've spent a bit of time going over the information that you, and others, have put there, and I've listened to the tape recording.

I'd need to check it out further, but it appears to me that going by the "compass swinging like blazes" could indicate that he was possibly over Iron mines or the like, and I notice on Google Earth that there is a opencast mine at Craven.

The ADF "going all over the place" could indicate that he was out of range or in a position of poor reception of the signal that he was beaming onto - which was probably Sydney?

Another thing is that his Altimeter could have been reading the wrong altitude as going by the available information that you have on your site, there is no mention of a request for the local QNH.
The high winds to me would indicate that there was a very steep pressure gradient in the area. If he was in a lower pressure area to that of where he last set his altimeter to, then that would mean that he was a lot lower than he thought he was. This would explain him getting ice at 8000 to 8500ft when VH-ESV said that there was no cloud above 8000ft. No water vapour - no ice!

I get the impression that when he said "5000" he was going down fast, seconds away from crashing, and this would also explain him dropping off the radar at that time.

Do you have the weather forecast for that day, particularly a synoptic?

If you can find out the QNH for Coolangatta on the day and the QNH for the area he disappeared in, then you would have a much better idea of how far out his altimeter was.

To my way of thinking, he didn't have problems with icing until two minutes before they last heard from him so it is unlikely that he went down due to ice.
It is more likely that he either got into the lee of a hill and got caught in a strong downdraft, or he was in a spiral dive due to disorientation. 76 kts of wind is rather extreme conditions to be flying in.

I see the Air force photographed a lot of the area that they thought MDX may have gone down in. Do you have access to these photos?

In the other areas that your blogsite visitors think it may be in, do they have access to old aerial photos in those areas?

Why I ask is that one of my methods I use to attempt to locate long lost aircraft is by overlaying aerial photos that were taken soon after the event on Google Earth, and then it is possible to zoom in, go into 3D mode, and have a good look around. If you find anything interesting, then you can use the measuring tool on GE to check out whether the "wreckage" you see is of the correct size.

As you know, things change a lot over the years and any wreckage becomes buried or overgrown, so using this method is in effect going back in time!
I get most of my photos from a local Aerial Mapping business and the photos are taken from anything from 16,000ft to 26,000ft and are generally in very high resolution.

I've found, in our bush over here, that it is virtually impossible to locate a crashed aircraft that has been lost for quite a few years by hovering over the bush in a helicopter, and I'm told by SAR that it is still very difficult if it has just happened. I would say that our bush here is one of the densest bush in the World though.

I hope some of this may be of benefit to you, or your viewers, as I find that any ideas that gets your mind to broaden it's outlook is very beneficial.

Many regards,

Gavin Grimmer
Hastings
New Zealand
www.findlostaircraft.co.nz

Rob Campbell

Since other sightings are unconfirmed & hazy, the only other reasonable info to go on is the Radar info, otherwise every one is looking for a needle in a hay stack. From original reports(read all earlier blogs) the Location of 1st Radar Ident E151 18' S32 03'. MDX got to this loc because it was 6 degree's off course from Taree, went west through ice cloud & lost it's position to turn left. After Ident MDX turned around & headed roughly 95 to 100 degree's magnetic to get to the coast so to be at a lower altitude to get the ice off & to regain orientation, but MDX went back through the ice cloud & collected more ice than the aircraft could handle & came down. From the Flight Plan & having a 30 to 40kt tail wind the ground speed matches the time it would take to go that distance from 1st radar to when MDX disappeared over Craven/Stratford. From the Pilot calling out his Altitude & the timing in the recording, I worked out MDX descending at 1600ft/min, from Craven/Stratford crash area is about 9km/5nm to the east. There are a few variables, was MDX actually at 5000ft over Craven/Stanford or bit higher or lower? The Radar said over Craven, but could have been over Stanford if going direct to Foster(lights) or in between? Was MDX in a high speed descent or a stalling lower speed descent?
Rob Campbell

Martins email

Hi Nev,
I had never heard of VH-MDX until 2 weeks ago. The 4wd club I am involved with are being asked to contribute ground support during the planned search this October. I am sad that there are 5 families without closure and 5 men that are still missing. I am also fascinated and reading
everything I can. I flew gliders in the Hunter Valley and at Lake Keepit for years and canoed the Manning and tributaries many times. I am an expert at nothing but good at a few things and if nothing else, I will continue to follow your progress (in actual fact, I will be part of that October ground support role if it kills me).

Question 1). Do you have the coordinates of the 1st radar sighting ?. (I can't derive enough accuracy from the radar chart to plot it on Google Earth)

Question 2). Was the 2nd radar sighting actually made ?. I note that it was never confirmed in the radio transcript but is noted on the radar chart.

Do we have the coordinates of that 2nd radar sighting if it is confirmed ?.

Question 3). What is the reasoning behind your search areas as depicted in the Google Earth pictures ?.

I am not out to reinvent wheels as I am an 'expert at nothing'. I just want to know for my understanding and further research before I go up there.

Best of luck to you.

Hi Martin,
Thanks for your email. There's not much i can tell you that's not already on the blog site. If you check under the post last radar position you will find the diagram to click on and enlarge to give you the last radar position as well as flight plan booked by MDX. The reason i searched around the pol blue area was due to a sighting that was made by a pilot who said he saw wreckage on a hill side at the top of the headwaters at pol blue creek. Unfortunately this was not the case.

I have now moved my search to the area of Buladehlah after reviewing some of the posts that have been sent to me and not having any new information to go on since I've exhausted my previous search area. It's a needle in a haystack as you know but half the fun is just getting out in the bush and being a part of a search. Good luck with your search as well and good on ya for getting out there and having a go.

Let me know how the search go's in October.

regards

Nev

Hi Nev,

On your VH-MDX blog, Robert Campbell reports (posted 03JUL2009) that the radio transmission is out of order (the actual audio file doesn't follow the order of the typed transcript).

I have edited the audio file and attached it. In doing so it can be seen that the first 4 minutes (page 2) is present as is the last 4 minutes (Page 4 & Page 5). The attached audio file isnow in this order.
For whatever reason the period 0928 'MDX SY Could you squark code 4000....' to 0934 '-DX Say again Maitland' are missing I.e. the bottom half of page 2, all of page 3 and the top bit of page 4. Of small consequence as the most qualified have computed the search area/s but an observation nonetheless.

Note:

I'm having trouble uploading Martins edited transmission file to the blog. If anyone would like a copy just send me an email and I'll pass it on.

Nev

Rob Campbell's search positions

Hi! Nev, These are 2 possible positions & whats in between & about 1/2 km either side is what I've worked out as a best guess to search for MDX!

Rob Campbell

Hi! Here is a larger image showing distance as approx.9 km or 5 nm from Stanford/Craven!

Rob Campbell

1st comment posted

If anyone is interested there is a comment posted to Rob Campbell's post in September's blog. Thanks for that Snowy. I thought it would take precedence for this months blog as it is a new post but it looks like a comment must stay with the post it is attached to whenever the original post was created. You learn something every day. Nev

Announcement

To all readers of this blog. I've decided to open this blog for public comment. To access the blog use the comment button at the bottom of the post. You will need to wait one day before posting as well as verify and open a gmail account before commenting, googles rules not mine!. I must admit to being a control freak and checking all emails but not altering them in any way before posting. I'm willing to trial this open blog to comment to promote a discussion forum with quicker response times. If any of our readers have search tips, techniques or links to similar sites send them in.

regards

Nev

Reply from Nev

Thanks for the email lee, It's funny you mention the West of Forster. The emails coming in to this blog all seem to be pointing away from the Barrington Tops area to the north, possibly north east. Do any of our regular readers have any thoughts on this ?

Nev

Lee Wright

Hi Nev,

No problem. It sounds to me like there was a lot of eye witness accounts & they can't all be correct so this may be just nothing. We lived near Coomba Park on the Western side of Wallis Lake (about 8km West of Forster) back then . My mother (a pilot in her younger years), was travelling along Coomba Road when she noticed a plane flying low over the lake around that time. When she heard about the crash she felt it could have been the plane. I don't know if she reported it or not. There could be other explanations for this:

1. If it was after the crash it could have been a search plane possibly launched from the Wallis Island airport.
2. It could have been another plane from the Wallis Island airport although this would be extremely unusual at that time of night.

I wondered if it was possible for the plane to have traveled that far East but I do note that a search was conducted as far East as Buladelah.

I know Wallis Lake extremely well - I was about 13 then & a boating fanatic. I've explored just about every corner of Wallis lake. The main part of the lake is too shallow for a plane not to be noticed. The deeper estuaries (max 4 Metres) are extensively netted by fishermen & I think they would have dragged up something by now.

I do think a plane could go down in Myall Lake just to the South & not be noticed. I don't know it well but I believe it's considerably deeper. Much of the area such as the Wallingat State forest is quite unpopulated and a plane could pass over without being noticed by many. I think it would be harder for a plane to pass at low altitude over the coast without being seen. Even back then the coast was fairly populated.

Are you aware of any other reports from the Forster/Wallingat area?

Anyway, just thought I'd share what I know of the incident.

Regards,




Lee.

Pol Blue search

Hi Rob,

I've been concentrating my search in the Pol Blue area on a sighting from a pilot seven months after the crash. He reckons he saw wreckage and broken trees on the side of a hill. After combing this area extensively in the last few years as well as chartering a flight and retracing his flight plan over the area I've yet to see anything.

Hi! Nev. Why didn’t that pilot mark the exact spot on his chart & report by radio while he was there over flying? Anyway, the simulations I’ve done show it always about to crash on west facing ridge 32*09’04.46”S 150*02’50.55”E & 32*09’14.00”S 152*02’48.00”E [see on Google earth] this is based on radar info & the recording of pilot calling out his altitude & the timing in the recording & his calculated ground speed from his flight plan, I’ve worked out MDX descending about 1600FT/MIN @5000FT over Craven assuming MDX was still heading between 90 & 100 degrees[towards Foster].The maps you need is Craven 9233-1S & Warranulla 9333-4S both 1:25000, the way to get to that spot is Via Glen Rd turn left to Trig 571 Craven turn right down hill part way up other side of ridge[log across track, chain saw needed, also need a 4WD as hasn’t been driven on for awhile, except motor bikes] the lantana here gets quite thick as you go from top down the hill, so good cutting equipment needed also. MY son & myself walked across the ridge, nth to sth about 75 meter’s down from the top, we didn’t have any cutting tools & day light was running out [one afternoon search] so we couldn’t get to those exact spots. Also on the sim just before you crash, pause it & tune in NDB’s & VOR’s from Taree, Williamtown, West Maitland, get their bearings & convert them on the Newcastle/Williamtown Terminal chart.

Rob Campbell

Hi! Nev

If you guys don’t believe the Radar info then you’re wasting your time because most of the other info is vague. If you’ve got flight sim X & use a similar type of aircraft [over weight it slightly for the ice on board] & use same wind/ speed 270@40 Kts @ 5000FT between Craven & Stanford [last position on radar] heading about 90 to 100 degrees [because I believe he could see & was heading to the lights at Foster] & without power descend @ 1600FT/min on autopilot & see where you end up!

Rob Campbell