Off The Grid

To all my readers,

Thankyou to everyone who has contributed to this blog or who have come along for a look to learn more about the mystery of MDX.

Due to health, work and business commitments i dont make enough time to monitor the blog or even get up the tops like i used to, Matter of fact i didnt even do one trip last year!!!!

So this year i will gó  "off the grid" take a break and recharge the batteries while i get my shit together.

PLEASE keep posting comments, suggestions and your thoughts on MDX and i will publish them as soon as i can. Or act as the go between to pass on emails and contact numbers of interested parties who would like to discuss MDX with other like minded individuals.

Kind regards

Nev Dennard

Mike Hart

Nev

I was the ATS officer on the Sydney Sector (FIS 5) who had the misfortune to be on duty when these events occurred. It was one of the worst nights of my life. I later resigned from Air Services or the CAA as it was then, to pursue a career elsewhere. I later became a QFI with 1 BFTS RAAF Tamworth and an ATO and C&T Captain with Surveillance Australia (Coastwatch). I spent the last few years of my working life as the Industry Complaints Commissioner for CASA. I am now retired.

After nearly thirty years I have finally managed to bring myself to listen to the audio tape of the night MDX went missing you provided on your blog site. In my view the tape is out of sequence and the last bit should be at  the front and the middle towards the end and therefore the tape is not a reliable record of the events but merely pieces of the transcript.

FYI I was never interviewed by anybody, either from the then  BASI or Air Services Australia, nothing has changed my view in all this time that the aircraft had had a vacuum pump failure and that subsequently the pilot lost of control of the aircraft. I  have personally  had two such incidents in my flying career which required full instrument approaches on a limited panel, each time the loss of the pumps was insidious and not easily detectable except for the fact that I was on instruments both times and only a constant and proper IF scan alerted me early to the fact that the AI did not agree with the rest of the instruments a rigorous adherence to the basic adage Attitude Plus Power=Performance. I do not blame the pilot in anyway, he was presented with a set of circumstances which were beyond him at the time in an aeroplane that has had more than its share of such failures which nobody really trained for or took seriously. I can say that of the hundreds of pilots I subsequently taught, trained and tested I made such all of them could handle a limited panel and then some!

It was a very tragic accident and merely reinforced my professional view that NGTVFR was merely a rating that allowed you to end up sometime in an environment where you were going to come to grief.

Regards

Mike Hart

Nev

Thank you for responding. You may like to know that I was also rostered on the same sector the next day when the search got underway in full with daylight, from memory I think there were 22 aircraft including helicopters involved, I remember afterwards being kept so busy as it stopped one thinking about the events of the night before. They (the search aircraft) found a few older wrecks but never MDX or any indication of the crash site. My gut feeling at the time was that MDX may have actually gone into Chichester Dam, I do recall that a small oil slick was seen on the lake but this was discounted by searchers at the time. It would be interesting if at some time somebody could do a sonar run on the lake. There were it turned out quite a number of older wrecks around the area north and east of Barrington Tops and these were repeatedly found over and over again during the search. I always have felt for the families and relatives involved as they have never had satisfactory closure on this tragedy.

The search area problem from my perspective was that the winds and weather on the night were quite mixed at or about 10,000 ft. they were very strong westerlies of about 70 knots which would have produced quite severe standing wave turbulence on the lee side or the coastal  ranges there which I think was the final straw for the pilot as he tried to climb out of the cloud he was in, the pilot reported to me that his ADF and I think DG were spinning around, which is not related to the pneumatic system issues but to me as an experienced pilot indicative that the aircraft was probably actually in a spin at that point which would have given him virtually a vertical trajectory from the position at that time with only a little drift from wind.  Whilst we did get a paint on radar at one stage it is very difficult to determine where the aircraft may have tracked or been blown given the conditions on the night.

As a matter of interest I had another Cessna 210 get lost on me when I was transferred to WA in the Kimberly’s in almost identical circumstances but I managed to get enough information from him to basically give him directions and lessons on radio navigation and he eventually landed safely at Fitzroy Crossing. I was later suspended and counselled for doing this. I left Air Services shortly afterwards. Management at the time were more interested in standing procedures and instructions than safety in my view, you will get hints of that in the MDX tape where I was instructed to ask the pilot inane or irrelevant questions about endurance etc. That was the system at the time where there Operational Control was exercised by a desk jockey (semi-retired or failed controllers) in Sydney, the same people also ran the search, thankfully that was later abolished and specialist SAR and Search Centres were established and AMSAR is now the outcome.

I never liked the 210, it was originally a 4 seat aeroplane with wing struts when it was first made by Cessna and then was later stretched to 6 seats and the struts removed. The aircraft would have been very heavy with 6 adults and luggage on board and I really doubt that it was properly within its centre of gravity limits. This would have made the aircraft difficult to control in pitch and this meant the aircraft could be easily overstressed and its turbulence penetration speed was also very low compared to its cruise speed (about 100 knots versus 150 knots) there had been numerous accidents where pilots had inadvertently overstressed the aeroplane and pulled the wings off, so it may well be that the wings are in one place or several places and the fuselage body in another and it would be badly compacted either way, so really anybody looking for the aircraft would probably only see perhaps a wing tip or wing and a bit of tail.

 .

Best of luck.

Mike Hart

Bendemeer NSW

Bob Campbell

Hi! Nev, Just heard back from the NTSB & they have no intention of reopening the search for MDX, even though I explained what I had worked out & proberly being in the Lake. So it's up to other people as usual! There's a full time American crew looking for missing WWII service personal still, I know it's not quite the same, but the families would like to think the Aust. Gov cared a little & would act on new info! or at least check the info out!

Bob Campbell

Hi! Nev, I went up a couple of weeks ago to Lake St Clair to check out that
shiney object, it's another Granite rock with white covering on top in the creek line.

The 3 Google pictures together, the bottom one is correct, but the 2 above
have been updated with new time/speed, did I send you these? hear it is again!

I now think MDX is in the Lake! Glennies Creek Dam/Lake St Clair constructed
1983, MDX disappeared 1981, bush not cleared before filling?

Trying to get the Lake Sonared !

Bob Campbell

Bob Campbell

Thought I'd send you this Google update of MDX's possible crash zone, between orange & pink lines & what's between.
Lake St Clair constructed 1983, could be under water? Based on 11min from 1st Ident to 5000ft, descent rate 1600ft/min & speeds between 110kts & 125kts, average speed 115kts!
Bob Campbell 

http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-general-aviation-questions/423553-vh-mdx-8.html

 

Hi! Nev, You can look up what I've written & worked out with the Google Images I've marked with above address!

 

I've looked up another a/c a B24 Bomber 'Beautiful Betsy' went missing in 1945 & was found in 1994 by a ranger 80km west of Gladstone, after a back burn he saw something shining in the distance!

 I have a Topo Chart Ingar 9133-2S, & on the photo side using a magnifying glass you can see something in the creek/bush, it's not that bright as Google, but can still see it! 151*15'50.00"E 32*23'11.00"S. I'm going to check it out anyway!

 

Check out this object on side of hill just south of Lake St Clair. 151*15'50.00E 32*23'11.00S

Lake St Clair - Bob Campbell

I've sent you an up date of 2 emails with 2 Google earth Images of what I've worked out search area of MDX is at Lake St Clair, based on long version of recording! That's north east of Singleton!

Bob Campbell

Mark Nolans MDX Google Earth map

http://www.mediafire.com/file/2s1ikx2jbp37j3a/MDXGE.zip

Mark Nolan has kindly offered his time to put together a Google earth map of Information gathered to create a reference map from official searches and information gathered from BASI files.

I'll let Mark explain the rest of the procedure.

The file is compressed into a zip file and can be accessed via the link above.It's pretty  easy to do.

Uncompress the file to somewhere, then, open google earth (assuming you already have it installed, it can't be the 'web' version) then in the file menu of GE, click open and then select the .KML file that was uncompressed previous, and it will add everything I have done to your google earth 'My Places' thing allowing you to see everything I have done to this point.

It's not it !

Hi! Nev, Just came back from checking out the object from google earth at those co-ord's. It's a 8 hr return hike through vines, up & down 2 MOUNTAINS, from the north near the river, but it's not it! It's a LARGE Granite outcrop, open to the sky & spread out! I have pictures & video of the object! I still think MDX is east of Craven because the radar takes us there, the recording takes us there & time/distance matches.
Rob Campbell
Ps: Happy Hunting?

Google earth

Hi Nev,
I can't see reference to such on your blog re this so I'll just type away...

Google Earth would be a great tool to use in searching for VH-MDX. A long shot given the years of overgrowth that may have occurred but a shot anyway and with hundreds (thousands ?) of armchair spotters eyeballing the area, who knows !.. A major obstacle is the resolution that photos of that area are taken at. Something the size of a Cessna 210 would be hard to spot even if it was sitting in a clearing with the current resolution available. Has anyone approached Google Earth and asked them to set their cameras to max resolution during their next overfly ?. For that matter even the RAAF may be able to take some high res photos of high-probability areas for the same army of armchair spotters to crawl over.


Martin Dalmazzo

Investigating

Hi! Nev. A friend & I looked up another aircraft that dissappeared in 1945 flying from Darwin to Brisbaine & was found accidently 80km west of Gladstone in a fire burnoff in 1994. It was a B24 Liberator 'Beautiful Betsy', they are a large aircraft compared to a 210, see how much of it was left intact after the crash in the pictures from that web site! Also from the other blog site one guy had coordinates of what looks like a plane but the measurements are to big for a 210, 31 41'52.04S 151 45'15.80E.
Rob Campbell

Robert Campbell

Hi! Been going over details that I've worked out & most are the same IE: rate of decent 1600ft/min. Time-Distance-speed from first radar i dent to Craven: 11min, 33nm approx@ 170kts ground speed. based on timing on recording, distance from report of location of radar I dent to Craven radar disappearance & GS on 240/30kts with plan speed of 150kts from flight plan.
One thing that I thought strange was the pilot in the recording says that the NDB needle & compass were swinging all over the place, indicating that he couldn't hold a heading/track & didn't know where he was going/end up. The line from first radar I dent to Craven on the chart is 102T minus- 12E equals= 090M, then from a flight computer working out the wind direction & speed = +7 degrees which = heading of exactly 097M? If the pilot flew 090M & didn't allow for the wind he would fly -7 degrees =083M + 12E= 095T on the chart? & that's if the radar info is correct? By the way; 170kts GS= 314km/hr! Hitting trees at that speed wouldn't leave much! If a fire as well? nothing!
Rob Campbell

Anniversary

Checking my mail last night i received an email from Yvonne Pembroke. She reminded me that today is the 29th anniversary of MDX. I'd totally forgotten about the day,has it been that long?
For me it's been eleven years of excitement and frustration. Somedays i tell myself enough is enough. Let someone else do it i'm to busy, too tired but something keeps dragging me back time and time again. Maybe i'm just a slow learner, who knows!Maybe i just dont know when to give up.


When the world says, "Give up,"
Hope whispers, "Try it one more time."
~Author Unknown

Rob Campbell

Hi! Nev, I just spent a week looking in my 3 positions & I thought I'd be the last to say it, but I gave up! It will take something of a Miracle & good luck to find MDX after 28 years in dense bush & THICK Lantana.Thanks to the person who cut the log across the track! I searched around my no.2 position & couldn't see any thing, I then searched my no.1 position, it's a tree farm, got in there via back way from the Craven Trig & its not on the chart, but they bulldozed a road up & along the ridge & actually joins position no.2 & again couldn't see any thing. Had a drive past at no.3 position but didn't look, the Lantana across the creeks is thick & the hills are steep. If you want to look I recommend around the no.3 position(Glen Rd). There are locked gates & private properties in most other area's I wanted to look! As I said earlier, you would have a better chance with an imaging device that the military are trialing that makes the bush disappear to see what's underneath, from an aircraft! Good Luck!! Rob Campbell
Ps. The Pilot didn't do himself any favors by not giving a bearing to something IE. Taree NDB or his direction(east?) as radar shows! or seeing lights etc. In the first place why didn't he back track off Taree NDB until he was 180 degree's off Maitland VOR & turn left!! The VOR doesn't swing as compass or NDB does!

Rob Campbell

Ok! Wind Gusts or currents are also caused by changes in Temperature & Pressure!

Gavin Grimmer

Hi Nev - Hi Rob,

Yes, I have my own plane (one I built - V8 Powered Maranda Super 14 ZK-JGR) and I have been in very turbulent weather. They say that if you want to know what turbulence is, then come to New Zealand! They also say that flying is 99% shear pleasure, laced with 1% sheer terror! - and I've had a fair bit of sheer terror, so I guess that means I've done a fair bit of flying.
It is an accepted fact that when you are at least 2000 ft above ranges the wind will be constant as of "on the nose" of the aircraft, unless you are in a Cb (thunderstorm). The only thing that changes is the vertical air currents i.e. up draughts and down draughts - and more so in a CB.
Wind "gusts" are produced mechanically by obstructions on the ground such as hills, buildings, etc.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not disagreeing with you. I was only trying to give you suggestions of other possibilities that you may not have thought of before.
You'll note I was suggesting that his altimeter was reading the incorrect height and if this was so, he may well have been down in the mechanical turbulence area and in fact this is most likely what was happening, but as always, you have to keep an open mind.
If his compass was swinging due to magnetic/electrical interference that was coming from outside the aircraft, then this could give you a hint of where he was at the time. I have never been to that part of Australia, so I'm just making suggestions that may be of benefit to you as you have the advantage of knowing the country that he was flying over, and by me making suggestions, they may bring something to mind that you hadn't thought of before.
If the ADF was swinging because it was out of range of the station and his compass was swinging due to some outside influence (such as an Iron Mine), then you need to find an area that fits both of these criteria, and then if everything else such as probable ground speed, etc., fits the scenario, then it would be a good place to look!
Most long lost aircraft are found miles away from where they were supposed to be - take Steve Fossett for example!

Regards,
Gavin

Martin Dalmazzo

HI Nev,
Sorry for the late reply... lets just say that life is hectic at the moment...
Here is a link to the re-ordered VH-MDX transmissions on zShare..

zShare is slow to respond (if you are not registered) but accepts most file types.

and again... all I have done to this audio file is re-order it to match the time-stamped transcript..

http://www.zshare.net/download/764226472384885c/

Rob Campbell

Hi! Nev, To Gavin: Have you been in a light plane when there is a strong wind? The wind is not constant, it blows in Gust's, & therefore the plane is bouncing around up & down & twisting from side to side! That's why the compass & ADF was swinging wildly in MDX on the recording! By the way, the second half of the recording should be listened to before the first half, because the timing is out!
Rob Campbell

Gavin Grimmer

Hi Nev,

Looks like you are my "counterpart" in Oz.

I have a website www.findlostaircraft.co.nz and I have several missing aircraft "on the go" that I'm trying to find and hence the reason for the website.

One of my visitors to my site put me on to your blogsite and I must say you have put in a lot of effort and a lot of information on it - well done!

I've spent a bit of time going over the information that you, and others, have put there, and I've listened to the tape recording.

I'd need to check it out further, but it appears to me that going by the "compass swinging like blazes" could indicate that he was possibly over Iron mines or the like, and I notice on Google Earth that there is a opencast mine at Craven.

The ADF "going all over the place" could indicate that he was out of range or in a position of poor reception of the signal that he was beaming onto - which was probably Sydney?

Another thing is that his Altimeter could have been reading the wrong altitude as going by the available information that you have on your site, there is no mention of a request for the local QNH.
The high winds to me would indicate that there was a very steep pressure gradient in the area. If he was in a lower pressure area to that of where he last set his altimeter to, then that would mean that he was a lot lower than he thought he was. This would explain him getting ice at 8000 to 8500ft when VH-ESV said that there was no cloud above 8000ft. No water vapour - no ice!

I get the impression that when he said "5000" he was going down fast, seconds away from crashing, and this would also explain him dropping off the radar at that time.

Do you have the weather forecast for that day, particularly a synoptic?

If you can find out the QNH for Coolangatta on the day and the QNH for the area he disappeared in, then you would have a much better idea of how far out his altimeter was.

To my way of thinking, he didn't have problems with icing until two minutes before they last heard from him so it is unlikely that he went down due to ice.
It is more likely that he either got into the lee of a hill and got caught in a strong downdraft, or he was in a spiral dive due to disorientation. 76 kts of wind is rather extreme conditions to be flying in.

I see the Air force photographed a lot of the area that they thought MDX may have gone down in. Do you have access to these photos?

In the other areas that your blogsite visitors think it may be in, do they have access to old aerial photos in those areas?

Why I ask is that one of my methods I use to attempt to locate long lost aircraft is by overlaying aerial photos that were taken soon after the event on Google Earth, and then it is possible to zoom in, go into 3D mode, and have a good look around. If you find anything interesting, then you can use the measuring tool on GE to check out whether the "wreckage" you see is of the correct size.

As you know, things change a lot over the years and any wreckage becomes buried or overgrown, so using this method is in effect going back in time!
I get most of my photos from a local Aerial Mapping business and the photos are taken from anything from 16,000ft to 26,000ft and are generally in very high resolution.

I've found, in our bush over here, that it is virtually impossible to locate a crashed aircraft that has been lost for quite a few years by hovering over the bush in a helicopter, and I'm told by SAR that it is still very difficult if it has just happened. I would say that our bush here is one of the densest bush in the World though.

I hope some of this may be of benefit to you, or your viewers, as I find that any ideas that gets your mind to broaden it's outlook is very beneficial.

Many regards,

Gavin Grimmer
Hastings
New Zealand
www.findlostaircraft.co.nz